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MX News Update 2024

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Italian Open selections and best tennis bets for May 16

Best bets on the Italian Open for Thursday, May 16

It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s great for bettors. This sport offers all kinds of bets, that’s why I’m going to offer you the best tennis bets as often as possible. And that continues with the final 1000-level event before the 2024 French Open. In the coming days, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Italy, as the world’s top players compete in Rome. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you catch the action. Below you will find some of my best tennis bets for Thursday, May 16.

I also strongly encourage you to come back to this story throughout the day. I try to write down as many matches as possible in advance, but that is difficult in an international sport. I also like to do some Challenger level betting. That said, I’ll probably add choices at the bottom of the story. I’ll throw them on the Pro Picks page too.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are deploying!

2024 record: 291-310 (+22.16 units)

Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz – Rome

According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, no one returned to Rome at a higher level than Hubert Hurkacz on his way to the quarterfinals. Well, that’s bad news for Tommy Paul considering Hurkacz ranks third in the world in holding percentage this season (90.2%). And the Pool’s retention rate on clay over the past 52 weeks has risen to 86.0%, so it’s not like the mud is keeping him from retaining easily. Overall, I find it hard to believe that Paul can beat Hurkacz when he serves and returns like this. Paul has never been much of a performer on clay as he is superficially only 19-25 years old in his career. So while Paul will have the edge when it comes to base play, I think the deck is stacked against him. And it doesn’t hurt that Hurkacz has already won a title on clay this season. For the first time in his career he is really enjoying this surface.

Bet: Hurkacz ML (-145)

Nicolas Jarry vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Rome
Danielle Collins vs. Aryna Sabalenka – Rome

Stefanos Tsitsipas has the second best winning percentage (82.4%) on clay over the last 52 weeks. He also won a Masters 1000 title in Monte Carlo earlier in the clay season. Tsitsipas’ game is perfect for slower courts, as the higher bounces give him time to uncork his one-handed backhand. That shot is usually a weakness of his, but it is tour average on clay. That’s plenty good enough, considering Tsitsipas is one of the best servers on tour, and his forehand is one of the greatest weapons in the sport. All of which makes it hard not to like him outright beating Nicolas Jarry in this match. And that is why Tsitsipas is a big favorite over the Chilean. But I want to take him to win this, so I’ll play Tsitsipas with Danielle Collins +4.5 games to get better odds.

Collins has a tough match on deck with Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian secured a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory when the two met in Madrid last tournament. But Collins should do a little better under these circumstances. It is difficult to beat Sabalenka at high altitude because she is such a powerful player. But Collins packs a lot of punch himself. She just needs some time to get going, and the slower conditions in Rome should help her with that. With that in mind, I like the American to keep this match relatively close. And I actually think there’s a decent chance she wins. Collins absolutely bullied Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals, moving her around the baseline and then clobbering the winners. If Sabalenka isn’t at her best, Collins will do the same to her.

PARLAY: Tsitsipas ML & Collins +4.5 games (-120 – 1.5 units)

Added plays

Harold Mayot ML (-175) vs. Daniel Evans (Bordeaux Challenger)

Wednesday plays

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VSiN Tennis Betting Splits

Tennis odds

Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book podcast